The one-sentence summary

Turbulence is the new normal – get used to it and develop early warning systems.

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WHAT THE BOOK SAYSCHAOTICS

  • Turbulence is now the norm in business, so the Chaotics management system aims to help companies minimize vulnerability and exploit opportunities fast
  • Panic tactics such as staff cuts, price reductions and slashed investment don’t work, but early warning systems do
  • Factors that cause chaos are technological advances and the information revolution, disruptive technologies, the rise of the rest, hypercompetition, sovereign wealth funds, the environment, and customer empowerment
  • The best response is “skill, will, till”: increase spending on new customers, have a culture to go against the trend, and have some resources to invest
  • Companies need to be responsive, robust and resilient: The most common mistakes made are:
    • Stretching to attract new customers before you’ve secured the core
    • Cutting marketing
    • Neglecting the 900lb gorilla (everyone knows you’re in trouble, so admit it)

WHAT’S GOOD ABOUT IT

  • Chaos inflection points can render a strategy obsolete over night
  • There are processes and diagrams that you can map out and enact
  • Business leaders need to see change first hand, eliminate the filers that stop them finding out fast, accept the inevitability of strategy decay, and drop their reliance on a two-playbook strategy – one for up markets and the other for down. The chaotics system has three components:
  • Detect sources of turbulence through early-warning systems
  • Respond to chaos by construction of key scenarios
  • Select strategy based on scenario prioritisation and risk attitude
  • Anyone can ask the critical questions:
    • What have been our past blind spots?
    • Is there an analogy from another industry?
    • What signals are we rationalising away?
    • Who is skilled at picking up weak signals and acting on them?
    • What are our mavericks and outliers trying to tell us?
    • What future surprises could really hurt or help us?

WHAT YOU HAVE TO WATCH

  • It is reasonably serious stuff, so there is no levity to sugar the pill.